UMisperceptions and China“s Chances U．S．Misperceptions and China’S Chances Liu Liping AbstractChina iS rising．WⅢChina catch up with or surpass the United States economically and militarily some daySThere iS no universally accepted answer．The author believes that as Iong as the United States makes no mistakes．it iS unlikely China wilI catch up with the United States in the foreseeable future．However，based on history and current US policy， there could be mistakes in areas such as anti．terrorism．China policy, immigration，etc．Any error on the part of the US will facilitate China’S move to the fore． Some Facts M笳鼍篇一yearsd器赢；
慧忠苗嚣 dramatic changes have taken place in China；
GDP, and output as well as foreign currency reserves have doubled and then redoubled．T11e living standard of ordinary Chinese has risen at a breath．taking speed．In 1 978．feW Chinese families had color TVS．Fewer still had the means to go abroad．Even a short domestic trip Was unthinkable．Now many Chinese families have their own cars and houses or apartments．and its fashionable t0 go abroad for work or holidays． China’S dizzying development leads some Chinese analysts to believe that China’S overall economic level will surpass that of the United States by the middle of the 2 1 5‘century．You can hardly blame them for China could indeed catch up with the United States if the United States maintained a growth rate of 2．3％，and China，a linear rate of 1 0％．Some foreign nationals，as well，share this point of view．In 2009 when Yasuo Fukuda，er Prime Minister of Japan，attended the annual Boao Forum ‘Liu Liping is the Editor of Contemporary International Relations． CIRJul．／Aug．2010 万方数据 Liu Liping for Asia in China’S Hainan Province．he claimed that the Chinese economy could surpass that of the United States in 2030 and be four to five times larger than that of Japan’S．1 The Christian Science Monitor published an article on July 6th．20 1 0 entitled“China Will Surpass America in 20207” in which the author made the following prediction“With average annual growth in America being some 7．5 percentage points lower during the 2000s，then assuming that this will continue and that the real exchange rate of the yuan will appreciate by on average 3 percent per yearquite reasonable．then it will only take 11 years before the Chinese economy becomes bigger,meaning that by 2020，China’S economy will be the biggest in the world．’ Other analysts and politicians，however,are more prudent about China’S future development．They argue，among other things，that China’S population is too large；
its resources are poorly endowed by Nature；
the infrastructure is weakthe production structure is not well balanced；
the gapS between urban and rural and eastern and western regions are too wide；
the poor and rich are polarized within the cities；
there is a lack of high-tech products and generally a low education level．Although China is indeed rising，the gap between it and the United States will remain‘large． Even if China Can eventually catch up。that day will be in the distant future． Most Chinese leaders hold this point of view．舳en talking about China’S economic growth．China’S Premier W_en Jiabao never forgets to mention China’S population of 1．2 billion．No matter how big the economic figure，it is much less impressive when divided bv 1．2 billion．It is widely believed that China’S GDP will soon surpass that of Japan and become the second largest in the world following only the United States． But both China’S GDP per capita and income per capita rank lower than the 1 00th place globally,even lower than some African nations．In order to catch up with the U．S．income per capita，China has to maintain its current growth rate for 30．40 years．and the United States will have to drop to zero． Can China do thatIt was once predicted that Japan would surpass the 1 www．hainan．gov．cn，2009．04．20． 2 Quoted from China’s Global Times环球时报，July 8，2001． 2C识、，01．20 No．4 万方数据 U．s．Misperceptions and Chinas Chances United States and became the largest economy in the world，but that prediction proved totally groundless．The same could happen with China． The best scenario for China iS that it slowly but steadily narrows the gap between it and the United States．There are two ways to achieve this goal．In the fnst，China maintains a high rate of growth，a rate which may dip below the current level but remains higher nonetheless than that of the United States．For example，in any one year,though China’S growth rate drops to 4．5％．it iS still higher than the current U．S．rate of 2．3％．The second possibility is that