本文结合港口建设的实际情况，根据BOT模式的特点，运用项目管理、风险管理、技术经济学等理论和方法，对港口建设BOT项目的风险，从风险识别、风险度量和风险防范三方面进行了全面深入的分析研究。
在风险识别中，本文首先分析研究了采用BOT模式进行港口工程项目建设时所能遇到的风险因素，并对这些风险因素进行了系统的归类，将这些常见风险分为自然风险、社会风险、政治风险、经济风险、管理风险、建造风险和法律风险七大类，然后对每一类的风险的具体表现作了进一步的分析，最后根据这些港口建设风险的特点，找到了一些有效的风险识别方法。
在风险度量中，本文在分析和总结传统的定性、定量风险评价方法的基础上，针对港口建设BOT项目的风险特点以及其特有的技术经济特征，本文应用了“多层次模糊分析法”对风险进行度量，该方法是层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的有机结合，比较适合港口建设BOT项目的风险评价，它考虑了港口建设BOT项目风险的复杂性和模糊性，很好的结合了风险定性研究和定量分析的方法，能够比较准确的度量出BOT项目的风险程度，为准确度量港口建设BOT项目的风险找到了一种有效的评价方法。
在风险防范方面，主要是结合港口建设BOT项目风险的特点，重点研究了各种风险因素的防范控制方法，主要包括风险防范的基本方法，风险分担的原则，风险防范的具体措施，项目各参与方的风险管理等内容。本部分首先系统完整的研究了港口建设BOT项目中常见的风险因素的防范和控制，这些防范措施不但有风险的事前防范研究，还包括风险的事后处置方法研究，为工程项目的全面风险管理提供了帮助。最后，论文还就各项目参与方所能面临的风险进行了专门的分析研究，并为其提出了切实可行的风险控制和防范方法。
本文旨在结合BOT模式的风险管理思想，探讨BOT模式应用于港口建设时所能面临的风险，以及如何准确度量和有效防范这些风险，并形成一套系统完整的港口建设BOT项目的风险管理方案，以期为将来的港口建设BOT项目风险管理者提供一些有用的理论工具和管理参考。
关键词BOT模式，港口建设，风险管理，模糊综合评价法，层次分析法 ABSTRACT BOT approach is mostly applied to the infrastructure construction. Now it has been brought into the field of infrastructure construction by the Chinese government, because it can solve the problem of the money shortage and the management inefficiency. At the same time, the risks of BOT project are so complicated and intricate that it is urgent and necessary to study the risks of it. According to the characteristics of BOT project and the actual conditions of port construction, this paper probes into risk identification, risk measurement and risk avoidance in the BOT project of port construction with the help of s, such as project management, risk management, technical economics and so on. In the study of risk identification, this paper firstly analyses and studies the risk factors that can be meet when the port building project adopts the BOT approach to build, and then sorts these risks into seven categories such as natural risk , social risk , political risk , economic risk , management risk , building risk and legal risk. After this, this paper gives further analysis to all of these risk factors, and puts forward some effective risk identification s. In the study of risk measurement, this paper firstly summarizes the traditional risk measurement s, and then, according to the characteristics of risks of port building BOT project, this paper find an effective risk measurement way called “multi-level fuzzy analytic approach“. This approach is very suitable for the risk measurement of the port building BOT project. It combines the qualitative analysis and quantitative study and it also considers the complexity and fuzzy characteristics of risks of the port building BOT project. So it can accurately measure the risk degrees of the port building BOT project. In the study of risk avoidance, this paper mainly studies the risk avoidance s for all the BOT risks according to the characteristics of risks of port building BOT project. This part mainly includes the traditional risk avoidance s, the principles of risk allocation, the concrete and feasible risk avoidance measures, etc. The part first studies the risk avoidance for the familiar risk factors of the port building BOT project systematically. These risk avoidance measures not only include the aftertreatment, but also the avoidance s in advance. This paper wants to put forward some feasible and effective risk avoidance ways for the risk administrator of the BOT project. The intention of this paper is to probe into the risks of the port building BOT project. After study, this paper have found some feasible and effective risk avoidance measures and finally ed a series of systemic and integrated risk management scheme for the BOT project. I hope this paper can offer some useful theory tools and Management consultations to the risk administrator of the port building BOT project. Kong fanfu Accounting Supervised by Professor Shao Ruiqing Doctor Yang Jirong KEYWORDS BOT approach, port construction, risk management, Fuzzy Comprehensive uation, Analytic Hierarchy Process 目 录 引 言1 第一章 BOT投融资方式概述4 1.1BOT投融资方式的起源及其在我国的发展4 1.2BOT投融资方式的特点及其用于项目建设的优缺点5 1.3BOT工程项目的参与主体及其运作过程7 第二章 港口建设应用BOT模式的可行性分析11 2.1港口的概念与范围11 2.2港口建设项目的技术经济特征11 2.3 港口建设投融资政策的沿革分析13 2.4我国港口建设取得的成就与存在的问题分析15 2.5BOT模式应用于港口建设的可行性分析17 第三章 BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险分析21 3.1风险的内涵及分类21 3.2风险识别方法22 3.3港口建设BOT项目的风险种类及其来源分析23 3.4港口建设BOT项目各参与方的风险变化规律31 第四章BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险度量研究32 4.1风险度量概述32 4.2工程项目中常用的风险度量方法33 4.3应用多层次模糊分析法度量港口建设BOT项目的风险40 第五章 BOT模式应用于港口建设的风险防范研究48 5.1风险防范概述48 5.2风险防范的基本方法49 5.3风险分担的原则51 5.4港口建设BOT项目风险防范的具体措施55 5.5港口建设BOT项目各参与方的风险管理61 第六章结 论66 致 谢67 参考文献68 引 言 一、论文的选题背景和研究目的 随着我国经济的快速发展，目前中国已经成为世界上重要的贸易进出口国，在未来的几十年中，中国将逐步成为新的“世界工厂”，我国将会成为世